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NWSL Notebook

Metrics Modeled

Post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed

PSxG−GA°Modeled

An estimate from a model we built. Useful, but not a fact — every modeled stat's page says where it's weak.

Definition

The sum of post-shot expected goals on a keeper's target, minus the goals actually allowed. Positive means stopping shots an average keeper concedes.

How much is enough

The slowest-stabilizing metric on this site; treat single-season gaps under about 4 goals as fog.

What it refuses to measure

Shot-stopping only — nothing about distribution, crosses, or sweeping.

What would prove this wrong

Inherits the PSxG calibration falsifier: league-wide this column should sum near zero each season; 2025 currently does not (−41.95, open issue).

Where it appears