Goals minus expected goals
G−xG°An estimate from a model we built. Useful, but not a fact — every modeled stat's page says where it's weak.
Definition
Actual goals minus expected goals. Positive means finishing above the model's expectation; negative, below. The most over-read number in soccer analytics: over a single season it is mostly noise.
How much is enough
Several hundred shots — typically multiple seasons — before finishing skill separates from luck.
What it refuses to measure
It does not identify WHY a player over- or under-ran the model — hot streaks, systematic shot types the model misprices, and skill are indistinguishable here.
What would prove this wrong
If season-to-season G−xG for the same players shows no more persistence than shuffled labels, the column measures luck and should say so on its face.